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Civil war declaration: On April 14th and 15th, 2012 Federal Republic of Germany "_urkenstaats"s parliament, Deutscher Bundestag, received a antifiscal written civil war declaration by Federal Republic of Germany "Rechtsstaat"s electronic resistance for human rights even though the "Widerstandsfall" according to article 20 paragraph 4 of the constitution, the "Grundgesetz", had been already declared in the years 2001-03. more
MACROPRUDENTIAL BULLETIN
10 March 2025
Cyber risk: a growing concern
We have published the latest edition of our Macroprudential Bulletin. It finds that cyberattacks have grown in both number and magnitude, meaning they pose a greater risk to financial stability than ever before.
Read the Macroprudential Bulletin
EVENT
10 March 2025
International Women's Day commitments
On International Women's Day we agreed to deliver on five commitments to close the gender gap in financial literacy, including establishing a central bank network and being a voice for change.
Read the five commitments
THE ECB BLOG
10 March 2025
The gender gap at work is closing
The gender gap in labour markets is narrowing. But this process has slowed down. The ECB Blog gives an overview of recent developments for all euro area countries.
Read The ECB Blog- 12 March 2025
- The ECB and Its Watchers XXV, Frankfurt am Main
- 12 March 2025
- Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the 25th ECB and Its Watchers conference organised by the Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability at Goethe University Frankfurt
- 6 March 2025
- Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 6 March 2025EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +Related
- 25 February 2025
- Keynote speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Bank of England’s 2025 BEAR Conference
- 21 February 2025
- Slides by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at FIW-Research Conference on International Economics in Vienna, Austria
- 7 March 2025
- Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Patricia Hecht and Beate Willms on 5 February 2025
- 28 February 2025
- Contribution to Bancaria by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, based on remarks at the Crypto Asset Lab Conference on 17 January 2025
- 20 February 2025
- Interview with Frank Elderson, conducted by NVDE
- 19 February 2025
- Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Olaf Storbeck on 14 February 2025
- 6 February 2025
- Interview with Piero Cipollone, conducted by Balazs Koranyi and Francesco Canepa
- 7 March 2025
- The gender gap in labour markets is narrowing. But this process has slowed down. The ECB Blog gives an overview of recent developments for all euro area countries.Details
- JEL Code
- J16 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→Economics of Gender, Non-labor Discrimination
J30 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→General
- 20 February 2025
- Euro area firms hold on to their workforce, despite poor economic conditions. For a significant share of workers this means a lower workload than usual. In turn, many put more money aside as they worry about job security and wages, as the ECB Blog shows.Details
- JEL Code
- J20 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→General
J30 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→General
J50 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Labor?Management Relations, Trade Unions, and Collective Bargaining→General
J60 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers→General
- 11 February 2025
- At the heart of the euro area’s competitiveness challenges lies weak productivity growth. The ECB Blog looks at how this makes it more difficult to carry out monetary policy.Details
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E60 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→General
- 5 February 2025
- The monetary policies of the ECB and the US Federal Reserve are not always in sync. But how does the Fed’s policy affect the euro area economy? This ECB Blog looks at how monetary policy in the United States travels across the Atlantic and what this means for the ECB.Details
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
- 1 February 2025
- Remaining competitive is fundamental for Europe’s future. We need faster economic growth and higher productivity to protect the quality of life for Europeans – from their jobs and incomes to their security and welfare.
- 12 March 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3036Details
- Abstract
- Physical climate risks can have a large regional impact, which can influence mortgage loans’ credit risk and should be priced by the lenders. Motivated by the relevance of climate change for financial intermediaries, our paper aims at analysing if physical climate risks are being reflected in residential real estate loan rates of banks. We show that on average banks seem to demand a physical climate risk premium from mortgage borrowers and the premium has increased over recent years. However, there is significant heterogeneity in bank practices. Banks that were identified as “adequately” considering climate risk in the credit risk management by the ECB Banking Supervision charge higher risk premia which have been increasing particularly after the publication of supervisory expectations. In contrast, the lack of risk premia of certain banks shows that ECB diagnostics in the Thematic Review on Climate were accurate in identifying the banks that need stronger supervisory focus.
- JEL Code
- G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
Q51 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Valuation of Environmental Effects
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
R32 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→Other Spatial Production and Pricing Analysis
- 12 March 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3035Details
- Abstract
- We field a series of experiments in a population-representative survey of European consumers to examine their attitudes towards the possible introduction of a digital euro. First, we show that a short video explaining the key features of the digital euro is effective in changing consumers’ beliefs about such a new form of payment and increases the likelihood of adoption by 12pp relative to a control group that is not shown the video. Second, we find that on aggregate consumers would allocate a relatively small fraction from a positive wealth shock to digital euros and their allocation to other liquid assets would be little affected. Third, holding limits in the range of €1,000 to €10,000 have insignificant differential effects on the composition of liquid asset holdings. We also show that a non-trivial fraction of consumers report that they will not adopt the digital euro due to strong preferences for existing forms of payment.
- JEL Code
- E41 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Demand for Money
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
D12 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
D14 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Household Saving; Personal Finance
G51 : Financial Economics
- 11 March 2025
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 369Details
- Abstract
- The European Union requires a single market for capital. Well-developed and integrated capital markets support economic growth and resilience across the region, offering benefits for businesses, households, and financial stability. This paper examines the importance of CMU in achieving five strategic objectives: supporting innovation and productivity, financing the twin transition, shoring up pension savings, strengthening alternatives to bank financing, and fostering convergence and inclusion. It highlights the progress made over the past decade, the challenges encountered, and the renewed impetus behind the CMU initiative. The paper proposes concrete steps to move forward, building on long-standing priorities supported by the ECB and the current policy debate on CMU. First, it suggests facilitating access to capital markets, via the creation of a new standard for a European savings and investment product. Second, it emphasises the importance of expanding capital markets across-borders which would be facilitated by improvements towards a more integrated supervisory ecosystem, an integrated trading and post-trading landscape leveraging on the potential benefits of digitalisation, and a more active securitisation market that does not compromise on financial stability. Third, the paper highlights the need to channel capital towards innovative and competitive firms by increasing opportunities for equity and venture capital financing. These actions should be complemented by longer-term initiatives, including continuing to address barriers stemming from the lack of harmonisation in insolvency, corporate and taxation regimes, designing a safe asset for Europe, completing the Banking Union, and promoting financial literacy and inclusion.
- JEL Code
- E61 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Policy Objectives, Policy Designs and Consistency, Policy Coordination
F36 : International Economics→International Finance→Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
G18 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Government Policy and Regulation
G24 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Investment Banking, Venture Capital, Brokerage, Ratings and Ratings Agencies
G51 : Financial Economics
O16 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development→Financial Markets, Saving and Capital Investment, Corporate Finance and Governance
- 10 March 2025
- MACROPRUDENTIAL BULLETIN - ARTICLE - No. 27Details
- Abstract
- Cyberattacks pose greater risk to financial stability than ever before as they have grown in both number and magnitude. A macroprudential perspective on cyber resilience stress testing is needed because cyber incidents can have a systemic impact as their effects spread across the financial sector via confidence, operational and financial mechanisms. While broader stress-testing principles also apply to cyber stress testing, stress testers need to focus in particular on clearly defining the overall objectives, determining the institutional perimeter, identifying material risk propagation channels, focusing on tail risks, considering relevant behavioural responses and combining the outcomes of bottom-up and top-down exercises. Based on these principles, cyber resilience stress tests can be executed following a bottom-up as well as a top-down approach. Top-down models can complement bottom-up results by providing harmonised modelling of system-wide financial interlinkages, behavioural responses and second-round effects.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
D81 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
C63 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Mathematical Methods, Programming Models, Mathematical and Simulation Modeling→Computational Techniques, Simulation Modeling
- 10 March 2025
- SURVEY OF MONETARY ANALYSTS - AGGREGATE RESULTS
- 7 March 2025
- LEGAL ACT
- 7 March 2025
- LETTERS AND RESPONSES
- 6 March 2025
- MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREAEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (21) +Annexes
- 6 March 2025
- ANNEX
- 28 February 2025
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 26 February 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3034Details
- Abstract
- Large-scale debt forbearance is a key policy tool during crises, yet targeting is challenging due to information asymmetries. Using transaction-level data from a Portuguese bank during COVID-19, we find that financially fragile households are more likely to enter forbearance, irrespective of income shocks. Mortgage payment suspension increases consumption and savings, but effects differ across households. Low liquid wealth and income are associated with a higher marginal propensity to consume. Additionally, ineligible households accessing forbearance show a higher propensity to consume than eligible ones. Our results suggest that observable household characteristics can help in the design of effective debt relief policies.
- JEL Code
- E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
G50 : Financial Economics
H31 : Public Economics→Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents→Household
- 26 February 2025
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 368Details
- Abstract
- This paper provides an overview of recent analytical work conducted, under their own aegis, by experts from various European authorities and institutions in the field of crypto-asset monitoring. Currently, risks stemming from crypto-assets and the potential implications for central banking domains are limited and/or manageable, including as regards the existing regulatory and oversight frameworks. Nevertheless, the importance of monitoring developments in crypto-assets, raising awareness of the potential risks and fostering preparedness cannot be overstated. In light of this, this paper sets out the background to the establishment of the Crypto-Asset Monitoring Expert Group (CAMEG) in late 2023 to bring together experts from the Eurosystem’s central banks and from the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB). It also provides abstracts of various papers and other analytical works presented at the inaugural CAMEG conference held on 24 and 25 October 2024. The conference aimed to take stock of analytical work and data issues in this area, while fostering European collaboration and monitoring in the field of crypto-assets. Finally, this paper outlines the prospective way forward for the CAMEG, focusing on gaining greater insight into data in this area and deepening analytical work on interlinkages, crypto-asset adoption and the latest trends.
- JEL Code
- E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
- 25 February 2025
- LETTERS TO MEPS
- 24 February 2025
- RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 128Details
- Abstract
- We study how disruptions to the supply of foreign critical inputs (FCIs) might affect value added at different levels of aggregation. FCIs are inputs primarily sourced from extra-EU countries with highly concentrated supply, or consisting in advanced technology products, or which are key to the green transition. Using firm-level customs and balance sheet data for Belgium, Spain, France, Italy and Slovenia, our framework allows us to assess how much – and how differently – geoeconomic fragmentation might affect European economies. Our baseline calibration suggests that a 50% reduction in imports of FCIs from China and other countries with similar geopolitical orientations would result in sizeable losses of value added, with significant heterogeneity across firms, sectors, regions and countries, driven by the heterogeneous exposure of firms. Our findings show that the short-term costs of disruptions to the supply of FCIs can be substantial, especially if firms cannot easily switch away from these inputs.
- JEL Code
- F10 : International Economics→Trade→General
F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
F50 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy→General
F60 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→General
- 20 February 2025
- ANNUAL CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET OF THE EUROSYSTEMEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +Related
- 20 February 2025
- ANNUAL ACCOUNTSEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +
- 20 February 2025
- ANNUAL ACCOUNTSEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +Related
- 20 February 2025
- ANNUAL CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET OF THE EUROSYSTEMEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +
- 20 February 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3033Details
- Abstract
- Questions about market power have become salient in macroeconomics. We consider the role of institutional structures in addressing these within a dynamic general equilibrium framework. Standard models account for monopoly profits as a lump-sum transfer to the representative agent. We label this an "incentive leakage," and show this to be a general characteristic of firm-optimal arrangements. We show that shareholder-operated or worker-operated firms that eliminate leakage can generate within-firm incentives that effectively reduce monopoly distortion in equilibrium. When all firms operate similarly, an additional general equilibrium effect arises through internalization of an aggregate demand externality. We characterize steady-state welfare across structures, and show how zero-leakage institutions lead to improvements towards the Golden Rule benchmark. Overall, our paper takes the first step towards an analysis of the macroeconomics of institutions without incentive leakage.
- JEL Code
- E10 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General Aggregative Models→General
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E25 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
- 19 February 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3032Details
- Abstract
- We construct a New-Keynesian E-DSGE model with energy disaggregation and financial intermediaries to show how energy-related fiscal and macroprudential policies interact in affecting the euro area macroeconomy and carbon emissions. When a shock to the price of fossil resources propagates through the energy and banking sector, it leads to a surge in inflation while lowering output and carbon emissions, absent policy interventions. By contrast, imposing energy production subsidies reduces both CPI and core inflation and increases aggregate output, while energy consumption subsidies only lower CPI inflation and reduce aggregate output. Carbon subsidies instead produce an intermediate effect. Given that both energy subsidies raise carbon emissions and delay the “green transition,” accompanying them with parallel macroprudential policy that taxes dirty energy assets in bank portfolios promotes “green” investment while enabling energy subsidies to effectively mitigate the adverse effects of supply-type shocks, witnessed in recent years in the EA.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
H23 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue→Externalities, Redistributive Effects, Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy and the Macroeconomy
Q58 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Government Policy
- 18 February 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3031Details
- Abstract
- This paper explores the impact of bank transparency on market efficiency by comparing banks that disclose supervisory capital requirements to those that remain opaque. Due to the informational content of supervisory capital requirements for the market this opacity might hinder market efficiency. The paper estimates an average 11.5% reduction in funding costs for transparent versus opaque banks. However, there is some heterogeneity in those effects. Transparency helps the market to sort across safer and riskier banks. Conditional on disclosure, the safest quartile of banks, those with a CET1 P2R lower than 1.5% of risk-weighted assets, benefits in average from 31.1% lower funding costs. The paper concludes that supervisory transparency is beneficial, supporting the view that supervisory transparency enhances market discipline by allowing markets to better evaluate and price the risk associated with each bank.
- JEL Code
- D5 : Microeconomics→General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium
E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G18 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Government Policy and Regulation
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- 18 February 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3030Details
- Abstract
- Does it pay to invest in green companies? In countries where a market for carbon is functioning, such as those within the European Union, our findings suggest that it should be beneficial. Using a sample of green and brown European firms, we initially demonstrate that green companies have outperformed brown ones in recent times. Subsequently, we develop a production economy model in which brown firms acquire permits to emit carbon into the atmosphere. We find that the presence of a well-functioning carbon market could account for the green equity premium observed in our data. Incorporating a preference for green financial assets is also unlikely to overturn our results.
- JEL Code
- E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
Q51 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Valuation of Environmental Effects
G18 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Government Policy and Regulation - Network
- Challenges for Monetary Policy Transmission in a Changing World Network (ChaMP)
- 17 February 2025
- SURVEY OF MONETARY ANALYSTS
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| Deposit facility | 2,50 % |
| Main refinancing operations (fixed rate) | 2,65 % |
| Marginal lending facility | 2,90 % |
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