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Председателят на ЕЦБ на посещение в Европейския парламент

В понеделник, 10 февруари, председателят на ЕЦБ Кристин Лагард бе на посещение в Европейския парламент, за да говори на пленарното обсъждане на Годишния доклад на ЕЦБ за 2023 г.

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Civil war declaration: On April 14th and 15th, 2012 Federal Republic of Germany "_urkenstaats"s parliament, Deutscher Bundestag, received a antifiscal written civil war declaration by Federal Republic of Germany "Rechtsstaat"s electronic resistance for human rights even though the "Widerstandsfall" according to article 20 paragraph 4 of the constitution, the "Grundgesetz", had been already declared in the years 2001-03. more

РЕЧ 5 февруари 2025 г.

Среден път в паричната политика

Главният икономист на ЕЦБ Филип Р. Лейн обяснява защо е целесъобразно да се следва среден път – без превес на възходящ или низходящ риск.

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ИКОНОМИЧЕСКИ БЮЛЕТИН 11 февруари 2025 г.

Структурни реформи в Европа

Европа спешно се нуждае от структурни реформи, за да навакса и запази конкурентоспособността си. Според Икономическия бюлетин на ЕЦБ целта им трябва да е повишена регулаторна ефикасност, засилено управление, подобрено качество на образованието и модернизирана инфраструктура.

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СЪБИТИЕ 11 февруари 2025 г.

Тренировъчен лагер за ИТ за момичета

Вие сте момиче, което обича технологиите? Нашият наситен с активности тренировъчен лагер за ИТ дава възможност на момичета на възраст от 11 до 17 години да се потопят във вълнуващия свят на цифровите приложения и технологиите. Кандидатствайте до 26 февруари!

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10 February 2025
Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the plenary session of the European Parliament
5 February 2025
Speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Annexes
5 February 2025
30 January 2025
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 30 January 2025
27 January 2025
Lamfalussy Lecture by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Lamfalussy Lectures Conference organised by the Magyar Nemzeti Bank, pre-recorded in Frankfurt am Main on 15 January 2025
17 January 2025
Slides by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at Crypto Asset Lab conference organised by the University of Milano-Bicocca
6 February 2025
Interview with Piero Cipollone, conducted by Balazs Koranyi and Francesco Canepa
5 February 2025
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Mário Blaščák
English
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17 January 2025
Interview with Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, conducted by Arend Clahsen and Han Dirk Hekking
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
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13 January 2025
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by András Szigetvari
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
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9 January 2025
Interview with Piero Cipollone, conducted by Federico Fubini
11 February 2025
At the heart of the euro area’s competitiveness challenges lies weak productivity growth. The ECB Blog looks at how this makes it more difficult to carry out monetary policy.
Details
JEL Code
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E60 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→General
5 February 2025
The monetary policies of the ECB and the US Federal Reserve are not always in sync. But how does the Fed’s policy affect the euro area economy? This ECB Blog looks at how monetary policy in the United States travels across the Atlantic and what this means for the ECB.
Details
JEL Code
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
1 February 2025
Remaining competitive is fundamental for Europe’s future. We need faster economic growth and higher productivity to protect the quality of life for Europeans – from their jobs and incomes to their security and welfare.
20 January 2025
Stress tests are of crucial importance to assess banks’ resilience under adverse economic conditions. In previous stress tests, however, some banks submitted overly optimistic projections. Despite thorough quality assurance by supervisors, this behaviour makes it more likely that the risks some banks face are underestimated. To address this, we are now taking a closer look at insufficiently prudent projection submissions. In line with our supervisory focus on banks’ risk data aggregation and reporting capabilities, we are also looking more closely at poor data quality issues in stress tests.
Details
JEL Code
G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
15 January 2025
Central banks project future developments based on past data patterns and a set of assumptions. Crises can change economic structures, complicating this forecasting. The ECB Blog explains how scenario, risk and sensitivity analyses address the new uncertainty.
Details
JEL Code
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E47 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
C15 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Statistical Simulation Methods: General
11 February 2025
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2025
Details
Abstract
This article discusses the role institutions play in supporting European competitiveness and makes the case for urgent and concrete structural reforms. Productivity growth in Europe has been disappointingly low in the last three decades, which is closely linked to the shortcomings in firm dynamism, investment, breakthrough innovation and the diffusion of digital technology. Efficient and effective institutions at the national and EU levels are needed to support innovation and investment and boost productivity, which in turn will raise competitiveness. This is particularly important in the context of increased geopolitical tensions and the need to facilitate the digital and green transitions.
JEL Code
O43 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Institutions and Growth
O32 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Management of Technological Innovation and R&D
O18 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development→Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis, Housing, Infrastructure
J24 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Human Capital, Skills, Occupational Choice, Labor Productivity
F02 : International Economics→General→International Economic Order
11 February 2025
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3021
Details
Abstract
Homeownership rates and holdings of housing wealth differ immensely across countries. Using micro data from five economies, we estimate a life-cycle model with illiquid housing in which households face a discrete–continuous choice between renting and owning a house. We use the model to decompose the cross-country differences in the homeownership rate and the value of housing wealth into three groups of explanatory factors: house price expectations, the institutional set-up of the housing market and preferences. We find that all three groups of factors matter, although preferences less so. Differences in homeownership rates are strongly affected by (i) house price beliefs and (ii) the rental wedge, the difference between rents and housing maintenance costs, which reflects the quality of the rental market. Differences in the value of housing wealth are substantially driven by maintenance costs.
JEL Code
D15 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics
D31 : Microeconomics→Distribution→Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G51 : Financial Economics
7 February 2025
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2025
Details
Abstract
This box provides an update on estimates of the natural rate of interest, or r*, published in Issue 1, 2024 of the Economic Bulletin. r* is commonly referred to as the real rate of interest that is neither expansionary nor contractionary. Broad trends in r* can be used to gauge economic risks, such as the potential constraint of the lower bound on interest rates. However, estimating r* is fraught with wide-ranging uncertainties and conceptual limitations. These uncertainties stem from model selection, parameter estimation, filter techniques and variation in real-time data. The inherent uncertainty in estimating r* and its conceptual challenges limit its practical use to determine the appropriate stance of monetary policy at a specific point in time.
JEL Code
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
C54 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Quantitative Policy Modeling
7 February 2025
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3020
Details
Abstract
An increase of e100 per tonne in the EU carbon price reduces the carbon footprint but lowers GDP due to higher energy costs and carbon leakage. Using a dynamic multi-sector, multi-country model augmented with an energy block that includes endogenous renewable energy investment, we analyze the macroeconomic and emissions effects of a carbon price. Investment in renewable energy mitigates electricity price increases in the medium term, leading to a smaller GDP loss (up to -0.4%) and a larger emissions reduction (24%) in the EU. Neglecting renewable energy investment overestimates the negative economic impact. We also find that a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) reduces carbon leakage but slightly hurts GDP and inflation as the competitive gain is offset by the higher costs of imported intermediate inputs.
JEL Code
C6 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Mathematical Methods, Programming Models, Mathematical and Simulation Modeling
H2 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
Q5 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics
6 February 2025
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3019
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Abstract
This paper investigates the role of banking networks in the transmission of shocks across borders. Combining banking deregulation in the US with state-level idiosyncratic demand shocks, we show that geographically diversified banks reallocate funds from economies experiencing negative shocks to unaffected regions. Our findings indicate that in the presence of idiosyncratic shocks, financial integration reduces business cycle comovement and synchronizes consumption patterns. Our findings contribute to explaining the Great Moderation and provide empirical support for theories that predict that banking integration facilitates the insurance of region-specific risk and the efficient allocation of resources as markets become more complete.
JEL Code
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
F36 : International Economics→International Finance→Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
6 February 2025
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3018
Details
Abstract
Housing expenditure shares decline with income. A household’s income determines its sensitivity to housing costs and drives its location decision. Has spatial skill sorting increased because low income individuals are avoiding increasingly expensive regions? I augment a standard quantitative spatial model with flexible non-homothetic preferences to estimate the effect of the national increase in the relative supply of high skilled workers that has put upward pressure on housing costs in skill-intensive cities. My model explains 10% of the increase in average house prices in Germany from 2007 to 2017 and 11% of the regional differences in house price increases. One third of the effects is due to an increase in spatial skill sorting driven by differences in housing expenditure shares. The observed degree of skill sorting was not significantly different from the optimal allocation in 2007 while skill sorting was larger than optimal in 2017.
JEL Code
H21 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue→Efficiency, Optimal Taxation
H23 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue→Externalities, Redistributive Effects, Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
R12 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→General Regional Economics→Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity
R21 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Household Analysis→Housing Demand
5 February 2025
LEGAL ACT
Annexes
5 February 2025
ANNEX
5 February 2025
ANNEX
5 February 2025
ANNEX
5 February 2025
ANNEX
3 February 2025
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3017
Details
Abstract
We study the implications of deviations from covered interest rate parity for international capital flows using novel data covering euro-area derivatives and securities holdings. Consistent with a dynamic model of currency risk hedging, we document that investors’ holdings of USD bonds decrease following a widening in the USD-EUR cross-currency basis (CCB). This effect is driven by investors with larger FX rollover risk and hedging mandates, and it is robust to instrumenting the CCB. These shifts in bond demand significantly affect bond prices. Our findings shed light on a new determinant of international capital flows with important consequences for financial stability.
JEL Code
F21 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→International Investment, Long-Term Capital Movements
F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G22 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Insurance, Insurance Companies, Actuarial Studies
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
3 February 2025
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3016
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Abstract
This paper explores the impact of the regulatory leverage ratio (LR) on banks’ demand for reserves and thus the pricing of overnight liquidity in the euro area money markets. We use daily transaction-level money market data during the period between January 2017 - February 2023 and examine the two major overnight money market segments – the unsecured and the secured one, distinguishing between over-the-counter (OTC) and CCP-cleared trades for the latter. We find a significant positive link between a bank’s LR and the spread between its money market borrowing rate and the DFR. Banks with a higher LR offer deposits at higher interest rates, thereby reducing the markdown vis-à-vis the DFR. The impact of the LR dampens during the period in which central bank reserves did not count towards the LR exposure measure (or the denominator of the ratio). It is stronger for G-SIBs, who need to comply with a G-SIB LR add-on on top of the minimum requirement applicable to all euro area banks. Moreover, the impact is weaker for CCP-cleared transactions compared to OTC trades, likely reflecting the possibility to net bilateral exposures if cleared via CCPs, which effectively allows banks to finance the respective gross money market exposures with a smaller share of Tier 1 capital.
JEL Code
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
3 February 2025
SURVEY OF MONETARY ANALYSTS - AGGREGATE RESULTS
31 January 2025
LETTERS TO MEPS
31 January 2025
OTHER PUBLICATION
31 January 2025
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3015
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Abstract
This paper examines the great supply shock following the pandemic and the invasion of Ukraine, using a novel suite of supply indices. The suite has indices for the euro area total economy, euro area industries, sectors and countries. The suite also computes the contributions to the indices from supply drivers at origin, in transport, or at destination. The results from the suite show that the supply shock has had wide-spread effects, and that their dynamics have been industry-, sector- and country-specific. Supply conditions have been tighter for longer in the euro area than other areas, in automobile than digital and food industries, in services relative to other sectors, and in some countries than others. The drivers at home appear to account for an increasing share of the specificity at the end of the sample, and a broader data set helps to better capture these drivers. The results also confirm that the supply indices in the suite lag supply shocks and lead variables susceptible to the effects of supply shocks.
JEL Code
C43 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics→Index Numbers and Aggregation
C82 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data, Data Access
E66 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→General Outlook and Conditions
R32 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→Other Spatial Production and Pricing Analysis
R41 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Transportation Economics→Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion, Safety and Accidents, Transportation Noise
31 January 2025
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3014
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Abstract
This paper investigates the growth impact of the EU’s Structural, Cohesion and Pre-accession Funds. We look at a large sample of 27 EU countries and the UK, over a period of 1989 and 2020, essentially covering the full history of these funds. We show that the growth effect of the funds is conditional on institutional quality: the funds contribute to economic growth only in countries with strong institutions: low corruption, strong rule of law, effective governments, and strong regulatory quality.Our research have important messages for the expected economic impact of the Next Generation EU (NGEU) and the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF). On the one hand, our findings highlight the risk that countries with weaker institutions – that also receive more funds - may use such funds less efficiently or wisely. On the other hand, countries that receive more RRF funds are also expected to introduce more structural reforms, some of which have the potential to improve institutional quality and thereby improve the effectiveness of the RRF and EU funds in general.
JEL Code
O11 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development→Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
O43 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Institutions and Growth
O47 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Measurement of Economic Growth, Aggregate Productivity, Cross-Country Output Convergence
31 January 2025
OTHER PUBLICATION
31 January 2025
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1,
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Abstract
This box summarises the findings of recent contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 82 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. According to these exchanges, which took place between 6 and 14 January 2025, business momentum remained subdued at the turn of the year as confidence in the manufacturing sector remained low, while services activity was more resilient. Price growth was moderate but had picked up slightly, mainly on account of rising energy and transport prices. Wage growth was expected to slow further both this year and next.
JEL Code
E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
31 January 2025
SURVEY OF PROFESSIONAL FORECASTERS
Annexes
31 January 2025
ANNEX
28 January 2025
LEGAL ACT
28 January 2025
EURO AREA BANK LENDING SURVEY
Annexes
28 January 2025
EURO AREA BANK LENDING SURVEY - ANNEX
Related
28 January 2025
PRESS RELEASE
Deutsch
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27 January 2025
SURVEY ON THE ACCESS TO FINANCE OF ENTERPRISES IN THE EURO AREA
Annexes
27 January 2025
SAFE QUESTIONNAIRE

Лихвени проценти

Пределно кредитно улеснение 3,15 %
Основни операции по рефинансиране (фиксиран лихвен процент) 2,90 %
Депозитно улеснение 2,75 %
5 февруари 2025 г. Предишни основни лихвени проценти на ЕЦБ

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JPY Japanese yen 156.92
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Последна актуализация: 10 февруари 2025 г. Обменни курсове на еврото