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2011 Q1

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

	2011	2012	Dec. 2011	Dec. 2012	2015
Mean point estimate	1.9	1.8	1.8	1.8	2.0
Standard deviation	0.3	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.3
Number of replies	56	54	52	48	49
Probability distributions	2011	2012	Dec. 2011	Dec. 2012	2015
<-1.0%	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.1
-1.0 to -0.6%	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.2
-0.5 to -0.1%	0.2	0.5	0.4	0.7	0.5
0.0 to 0.4%	0.8	1.6	1.5	1.9	1.9
0.5 to 0.9%	2.9	5.4	4.4	6.4	5.1
1.0 to 1.4%	13.1	17.5	18.4	17.4	13.8
1.5 to 1.9%	37.6	37.5	37.6	33.5	30.6
2.0 to 2.4%	30.5	23.9	24.1	24.8	29.4
2.5 to 2.9%	11.0	9.0	8.8	9.9	11.6
3.0 to 3.4%	3.0	3.0	3.0	3.7	4.5
3.5 to 3.9%	0.7	1.0	1.2	1.0	1.7
>4.0%	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.3	0.5
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

	2011	2012	2011 Q3	2012 Q3	2015
Mean point estimate	1.6	1.7	1.4	1.8	1.9
Standard deviation	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.3
Number of replies	55	53	50	46	47
Probability distributions	2011	2012	2011 Q3	2012 Q3	2015
<-1.0%	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.4	0.2
-1.0 to -0.6%	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.5
-0.5 to -0.1%	0.8	1.1	1.0	1.1	1.2
0.0 to 0.4%	2.2	3.1	3.4	3.1	2.9
0.5 to 0.9%	7.2	7.8	11.8	8.8	6.4
1.0 to 1.4%	26.9	21.3	30.5	20.8	15.3
1.5 to 1.9%	39.2	34.5	32.7	31.5	29.1
2.0 to 2.4%	16.8	20.1	14.2	21.6	25.5
2.5 to 2.9%	4.6	7.3	4.2	8.3	12.2
3.0 to 3.4%	1.2	2.7	1.0	3.1	4.4
3.5 to 3.9%	0.3	0.7	0.2	0.7	1.8
>4.0%	0.1	0.4	0.0	0.1	0.4
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

	2011	2012	Nov. 2011	Nov. 2012	2015
Mean point estimate	9.9	9.6	9.9	9.5	8.3
Standard deviation	0.2	0.4	0.3	0.5	0.7
Number of replies	55	53	46	44	43
Probability distributions	2011	2012	Nov. 2011	Nov. 2012	2015
<6.5%	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	1.0
6.5 to 6.9%	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	3.2
7.0 to 7.4%	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.5	8.1
7.5 to 7.9%	0.0	0.7	0.1	1.4	14.5
8.0 to 8.4%	0.4	2.9	0.7	4.6	19.6
8.5 to 8.9%	2.5	8.8	3.9	11.3	22.2
9.0 to 9.4%	10.8	23.6	15.6	24.6	16.9
9.5 to 9.9%	33.5	31.3	35.2	28.5	8.2
10.0 to 10.4%	36.4	19.5	27.9	16.7	3.8
10.5 to 10.9%	12.6	8.8	11.3	7.7	1.4
11.0 to 11.4%	2.8	3.1	3.4	3.1	0.7
11.5 to 11.9%	0.9	1.0	1.4	1.1	0.4
12.0 to 12.4%	0.2	0.2	0.4	0.3	0.1
12.5 to 12.9%	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
13.0 to 13.4%	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
13.5 to 13.9%	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
14.0 to 14.4%	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
14.5 to 14.9%	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
>15.0%	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0

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