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2021 Q4

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2021 Q4 inflation forecasts
  2021 2022 2023 Sep. 2022 Sep. 2023 2026
Mean point estimate 2.3 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.9
Standard deviation 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5
Number of replies 56 56 52 47 41 44
Probability distributions 2021 2022 2023 Sep. 2022 Sep. 2023 2026
<-1.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.20.3
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.40.4
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.9 1.10.9
0.0 to 0.4% 0.2 1.3 2.7 2.6 2.82.6
0.5 to 0.9% 0.7 4.4 8.7 8.9 9.28.1
1.0 to 1.4% 2.1 12.5 21.3 23.3 21.916.0
1.5 to 1.9% 8.5 33.0 32.6 30.3 30.231.2
2.0 to 2.4% 59.3 28.1 18.2 18.6 18.820.4
2.5 to 2.9% 23.0 12.8 8.0 7.6 8.310.6
3.0 to 3.4% 4.3 4.6 3.4 4.5 3.64.1
3.5 to 3.9% 1.5 1.8 1.8 2.2 1.62.0
>4.0% 0.2 0.5 1.6 0.3 2.03.4
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

2021 Q4 core inflation forecasts
  2021 2022 2023 Sep. 2022 Sep. 2023 2026
Mean point estimate 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.8
Standard deviation 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.7
Number of replies 41 41 39 37 34 32
Probability distributions 2021 2022 2023 Sep. 2022 Sep. 2023 2026
<-1.0% 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.40.4
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.40.5
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.5 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.51.3
0.0 to 0.4% 1.2 3.7 3.7 4.4 4.24.0
0.5 to 0.9% 11.7 13.1 11.1 15.0 16.310.7
1.0 to 1.4% 53.4 28.8 29.2 28.1 26.621.2
1.5 to 1.9% 28.1 31.9 31.3 30.5 29.230.1
2.0 to 2.4% 3.7 13.4 12.3 13.8 11.317.2
2.5 to 2.9% 0.8 5.3 4.2 4.2 4.27.1
3.0 to 3.4% 0.2 1.5 2.1 1.3 1.72.9
3.5 to 3.9% 0.1 0.3 1.5 0.4 1.31.2
>4.0% 0.0 0.3 2.3 0.3 3.03.3
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2021 Q4 real GDP growth forecasts
  2021 2022 2023 2022 Q2 2023 Q2 2026
Mean point estimate 5.1 4.5 2.2 4.9 2.4 1.5
Standard deviation 0.3 0.7 0.8 1.3 1.4 0.4
Number of replies 56 56 52 46 41 42
Probability distributions 2021 2022 2023 2022 Q2 2023 Q2 2026
<-1.0% 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.70.9
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.2 0.50.9
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.3 0.92.5
0.0 to 0.4% 0.0 0.3 2.5 0.4 2.16.0
0.5 to 0.9% 0.1 0.6 5.1 0.7 4.713.8
1.0 to 1.4% 0.1 0.9 12.1 0.9 9.221.9
1.5 to 1.9% 0.3 1.2 21.5 1.5 18.927.7
2.0 to 2.4% 0.7 2.7 25.8 2.5 25.014.9
2.5 to 2.9% 1.6 5.2 13.9 4.3 19.15.8
3.0 to 3.4% 3.0 9.6 8.3 10.4 9.02.5
3.5 to 3.9% 11.4 26.0 3.4 19.1 3.91.4
4.0 to 5.9% 69.5 41.1 2.1 38.6 2.41.4
6.0 to 7.9% 11.3 8.3 1.6 15.0 1.00.2
8.0 to 9.9% 1.6 2.4 0.7 3.5 0.50.0
>10.0% 0.3 1.1 0.5 2.0 2.10.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2021 Q4 unemployment rate forecasts
  2021 2022 2023 Aug. 2022 Aug. 2023 2026
Mean point estimate 7.8 7.4 7.2 7.4 7.2 7.0
Standard deviation 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5
Number of replies 51 51 46 39 33 35
Probability distributions 2021 2022 2023 Aug. 2022 Aug. 2023 2026
<5.5% 0.2 0.6 1.7 0.5 2.03.4
5.5 to 5.9% 0.4 1.2 2.6 1.3 3.45.8
6.0 to 6.4% 0.8 3.5 7.5 5.0 9.011.2
6.5 to 6.9% 2.0 13.2 19.4 11.7 16.719.5
7.0 to 7.4% 11.2 31.3 29.2 25.3 24.524.3
7.5 to 7.9% 56.7 29.2 23.3 29.2 22.114.9
8.0 to 8.4% 20.2 12.4 8.3 12.8 9.68.0
8.5 to 8.9% 5.6 4.7 4.3 8.9 5.14.7
9.0 to 9.4% 1.5 2.2 1.9 3.2 4.94.3
9.5 to 9.9% 0.7 1.0 0.8 1.3 1.21.7
10.0 to 10.4% 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.61.0
10.5 to 10.9% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.20.6
11.0 to 11.4% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.10.2
11.5 to 11.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.10.2
12.0 to 12.4% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.10.1
12.5 to 12.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.10.1
13.0 to 13.4% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.10.0
13.5 to 13.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.10.0
14.0 to 14.4% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.10.0
14.5 to 14.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
>15.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0