Pas disponible en français
Valerio Scalone
- 24 October 2024
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 358Details
- Abstract
- In recent years, monetary policy and inflation considerations have been playing an increasingly important role for macroprudential authorities in their policy setting. This paper aims to assess the implications of high inflation and rising interest rates for macroprudential policy stance. The conceptual discussions and model-based analyses included in this paper reflect on the appropriate direction and impact of macroprudential policies at the different stages of financial and business cycles, given cross-country and banking system heterogeneities. In this context, a key objective of the paper is to assess to what extent the interaction between macroprudential and monetary policies differs, given the heterogeneity across euro area countries exposed to a homogenous monetary policy. While both policies are to a large extent complementary, monetary policy may generate relevant spillovers due to its impact on the financial cycle and, potentially, on financial stability. The paper argues that the recent focus of macroprudential policy on resilience, when banking sector conditions ensure no unwarranted procyclical effects of macroprudential tightening, suggests an expansion of the notion of “complementarity” with monetary policy. Specifically, with the build-up of resilience, macroprudential policy acts de facto countercyclically, supporting monetary policy in its pursuit of price stability. In this regard, the paper stresses that the source of the inflationary shock (supply versus demand side) and the monetary environment primarily affect the intensity, speed and extent of buffer build-up or release within each stage of the financial cycle while affecting borrower-based measures in their bindingness.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 1 August 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2966Details
- Abstract
- In this paper, we propose a new framework to jointly calibrate cyclical and structural capital requirements. For this, we integrate a non-linear macroeconomic model and a stress test model. In the macroeconomic model, the severity of the scenarios depends on the level of cyclical risk. Risk-related scenarios are used as inputs for the stress test model. Banks’ capital losses derived from a scenario based on a reference level of risk are used to set the structural requirement. Additional losses associated with the current risk scenario are used to set the cyclical requirement. This approach provides a transparent method to strike the balance between cyclical and structural requirements.
- JEL Code
- C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
- 20 June 2024
- MACROPRUDENTIAL BULLETIN - ARTICLE - No. 24Details
- Abstract
- This article explores the benefits of a positive neutral rate for the countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB) and the conditions shaping the economic costs of its activation in a general equilibrium framework. The analysis shows that a gradual build-up of the buffer and favourable banking sector conditions (e.g. high profitability) limit these economic costs. Furthermore, a positive neutral CCyB rate ensures banking sector resilience in all phases of the financial cycle and improves macroprudential authorities’ ability to provide relief to the banking sector in the event of (potentially large) shocks, including those unrelated to the materialisation of domestic credit imbalances.
- JEL Code
- C68 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Mathematical Methods, Programming Models, Mathematical and Simulation Modeling→Computable General Equilibrium Models
E61 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Policy Objectives, Policy Designs and Consistency, Policy Coordination
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation