John Beirne
- 12 April 2017
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2044Details
- Abstract
- This paper examines volatility spillovers from changes in the size of the balance sheets of the Federal Reserve FED) and European Central Bank (ECB) to emerging market economies (EMEs) from 2003 to 2014. We find that EME bond markets are most susceptible to positive volatility spillovers from both the FED and ECB in terms of magnitude. Positive volatility spillovers to EME currency markets are higher in the case of FED balance sheet expansions than those of the ECB by a factor of about ten. By contrast, we find that EME stock markets are subject to negative volatility spillovers. Moreover, we find only limited evidence of volatility transmission to the real economy of EMEs following the monetary policy actions of the FED and ECB. Finally, we show that the proportion of the volatility in EMEs that is accounted for by changes in FED and ECB balance sheets shifts over time.
- JEL Code
- F3 : International Economics→International Finance
F4 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
F16 : International Economics→Trade→Trade and Labor Market Interactions
G1 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets
- 30 September 2016
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 180Details
- Abstract
- The last decade has been characterised by the pronounced volatility of capital flows. While cross-border capital flows can have many benefits for both advanced and emerging market economies, they may also carry risks, which require appropriate policy responses. Disentangling the push from the pull factors driving capital flows is key to designing appropriate policies to deal with them. Strong institutions, sound fundamentals and a large domestic investor base tend to shield economies from adverse global conditions and attract less volatile types of capital. However, when the policy space for using traditional macroeconomic policies is limited, countries may also turn to macroprudential and capital flow management policies in a pragmatic manner. The IMF can play an important role in helping countries to deal with capital flows, through its surveillance and lending policy and through international cooperation.
- JEL Code
- F3 : International Economics→International Finance
F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
F38 : International Economics→International Finance→International Financial Policy: Financial Transactions Tax; Capital Controls
F42 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Policy Coordination and Transmission
F65 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→Finance
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 23 September 2015
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 166Details
- Abstract
- The decrease of financial integration both at the global and European level reflects, to a certain extent, a market response to the crisis. It might, however, also be partly driven by policies such as capital flow management measures (CFMs). In addition, several other measures taken by central banks, regulators and governments in response to the crisis may have had less obvious negative side effects on financial integration. Against this backdrop, this paper explores broad definitions of financial protectionism in order to raise awareness of the fact that the range of policies which could negatively affect financial integration may be much wider than residency-based CFMs. At the same time, the paper acknowledges that these measures have mostly been taken for legitimate financial stability purposes and with no protectionist intentions. The paper considers five categories of policy measures which could contribute to financial fragmentation both at the global and at the EU level: currency-based measures directed towards banks, geographic ring fencing, some financial repression policies, crisis resolution policies with a national bias, and some financial sector taxes.
- JEL Code
- F36 : International Economics→International Finance→Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
F42 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Policy Coordination and Transmission
F62 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→Macroeconomic Impacts
- 20 August 2014
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1721Details
- Abstract
- This paper assesses the effectiveness and associated externalities that arise when macro- prudential policies (MPPs) are used to manage international capital flows. Using a sample of up to 139 countries, we examine the impact of eight different MPP measures on cross-border bank flows over the period 1999-2009. Our panel analysis takes into account the structure of the banking system as well as the presence of potential cross-country and cross-asset class spillover effects. Our results indicate that the structure of the domestic banking system matters for the effectiveness of MPPs. We specifically find that a high share of non-resident bank loans in the MPP-implementing country reduces the domestic effectiveness of most MPPs, while a high return on assets in the domestic banking system has the opposite effect. Our results on the spillover analysis indicate that both types of spillover can occur. First, we find that a high return on assets in the banking system of countries other than the MPP-implementing one leads to a reduction, and a greater degree of trade integration leads to an increase in spillovers across countries. However, the economic significance of the results suggests that only a limited number of countries will tend to experience substantial geographical spillover effects. Second, we also find some evidence of spillover effects across asset classes within countries.
- JEL Code
- F3 : International Economics→International Finance
F5 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
- 28 May 2014
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - ARTICLEFinancial Stability Review Issue 1, 2014Details
- Abstract
- In light of the recent emerging market tensions, this special feature takes stock of euro areabanks’ emerging market exposures by identifying the major sources and types of related risks and highlighting some of the potential financial channels of contagion. Euro area banks’ emerging market exposures are analysed in time and cross-sectional dimensions, at the country and individual bank level, as well as in absolute terms and relative to some bank balance sheet metrics. Within a panel regression framework, the special feature also seeks to identify those emerging economies that – based on their credit metrics and fundamentals – are the most exposed to financial stability risks, which, if they materialise, may have negative repercussions for euro area banks with sizeable exposures to those economies.
- JEL Code
- G00 : Financial Economics→General→General
- 19 December 2013
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1625Details
- Abstract
- The paper analyses the drivers of sovereign risk for 31 advanced and emerging economies during the European sovereign debt crisis. It shows that a deterioration in countries
- JEL Code
- E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
F30 : International Economics→International Finance→General
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
C23 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
H63 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Debt, Debt Management, Sovereign Debt
- 15 October 2013
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1598Details
- Abstract
- Does firm ownership change affect performance? On the basis of a mean-value analysis and a fixed effects panel analysis of over 1100 Chinese companies during the period of ownership reform (1997-2003), this paper examines the performance impact of firm ownership transformation in China. The data used allows us to compare the performance impacts of different methods taken to restructure the ownership of state firms, such as full versus partial privatisation. For China, a state-capitalist nation and the world's largest state sector under transition, the mix of state and private ownership
- JEL Code
- L33 : Industrial Organization→Nonprofit Organizations and Public Enterprise→Comparison of Public and Private Enterprises and Nonprofit Institutions, Privatization, Contracting Out
O40 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→General
P27 : Economic Systems→Socialist Systems and Transitional Economies→Performance and Prospects
- 1 October 2012
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1480Details
- Abstract
- This paper provides an empirical assessment of interdependence and contagion across three asset classes (bonds, stocks, and currencies) for over 60 economies over the period 1998 to 2011. Using a global VAR, we test for changes in the transmission mechanism
- JEL Code
- F30 : International Economics→International Finance→General
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
- 14 January 2011
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 122Details
- Abstract
- This paper provides an assessment of the impact of the covered bond purchase programme (hereafter referred to as the CBPP) relative to its policy objectives. The analysis presented on the impact of the CBPP on both the primary and secondary bond markets indicates that the Programme has been an effective policy instrument. It has contributed to: (i) a decline in money market term rates, (ii) an easing of funding conditions for credit institutions and enterprises, (iii) encouraging credit institutions to maintain and expand their lending to clients, and (iv) improving market liquidity in important segments of the private debt securities market. The paper also provides an overview of the investment strategy of the the Eurosystem with regard to the CBPP portfolio.
- JEL Code
- E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
L63 : Industrial Organization→Industry Studies: Manufacturing→Microelectronics, Computers, Communications Equipment
L86 : Industrial Organization→Industry Studies: Services→Information and Internet Services, Computer Software
O3 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights
O47 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Measurement of Economic Growth, Aggregate Productivity, Cross-Country Output Convergence
- 8 December 2009
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1120Details
- Abstract
- This paper provides estimates of the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to consumer prices for nine central and eastern European EU Member States. Using a five-variate cointegrated VAR (vector autoregression) for each country and impulse responses derived from the VECM (vector error correction model), we show that ERPT to consumer prices averages about 0.6 using the cointegrated VAR and 0.5 using the impulse responses. We also find that the ERPT seems to be higher for countries that have adopted some form of fixed exchange rate regime. These results are robust to alternative normalisation of the VAR and alternative ordering of the impulse responses.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
- 13 November 2009
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1113Details
- Abstract
- This paper models volatility spillovers from mature to emerging stock markets, tests for changes in the transmission mechanism during turbulences in mature markets, and examines the implications for conditional correlations between mature and emerging market returns. Tri-variate GARCH-BEKK models of returns in mature, regional emerging, and local emerging markets are estimated for 41 emerging market economies (EMEs). Wald tests suggest that mature market volatility affects conditional variances in many emerging markets. Moreover, spillover parameters change during turbulent episodes. In the majority of the sample EMEs, conditional correlations between local and mature markets increase during these episodes. While conditional variances in local markets rise as well, volatility in mature markets rises more, and this shift is the main factor behind the increase in conditional correlations. With few exceptions, conditional beta coefficients between mature and emerging markets tend to be unchanged or lower during turbulences.
- JEL Code
- F30 : International Economics→International Finance→General
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets