Ivelina Ilkova
- 30 June 2025
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 371Details
- Abstract
- This report offers a strategic view on the economic and inflation environment in the euro area as part of the monetary policy strategy assessment 2025. It reassesses the factors shaping the inflation and economic environment in light of the recent inflation experience, analyses changes in structural factors and examines the implications for the inflation environment the ECB is likely to face. It also draws conclusions regarding the enhancements that need to be made to the existing analytical toolkit and inflation forecasting.
- 28 October 2024
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 359Details
- Abstract
- Based on granular data at the product level, this paper looks at whether and how the euro area and the United States have modified their import sourcing strategies since 2016, the role played by geopolitical tensions and the potential impact on import prices. It considers two different, but not mutually exclusive, changes to sourcing strategies for a given product: (i) increasing the number of sourcing countries and (ii) reducing the import market share of the main supplier country. Data suggest that both regions have, on average, increased the number of sourcing countries, particularly for products that are mostly imported from “geopolitically distant” countries (based on UN General Assembly voting records). Broadening the number of supplier countries has come at a cost; however, it has affected only a small share of total imports, with modest implications for inflation and the terms of trade. At the same time, evidence of a reduction in the import share of the main supplier country is more mixed and is generally associated with a shift towards cheaper – but not necessarily geopolitically closer – countries, suggesting that cost considerations take precedence over supply chain resilience and national security concerns.
- JEL Code
- F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
F51 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy→International Conflicts, Negotiations, Sanctions
F62 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→Macroeconomic Impacts
- 1 August 2024
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 5, 2024Details
- Abstract
- Based on granular data at the product level, this box discusses whether and how the euro area and the United States have modified their import sourcing strategies since 2016, the role played by geopolitical tensions and the potential impact on import prices. It considers two different, but not mutually exclusive, strategies: increasing the number of sourcing countries and reducing the import market share of the main supplier country per product. Data suggest that both regions have increased, on average, the number of sourcing countries, particularly for those products mostly imported from geopolitically distant countries. Broadening the number of supplier countries has come at a cost, however, it has affected only a small share of total imports, with modest implications for inflation and the terms of trade. At the same time, evidence of a reduction in the import share of the main supplier country is more mixed and is generally associated with a shift towards cheaper – and not necessarily geopolitically closer – countries, suggesting the prevalence of cost considerations over supply-chain resilience and national security concerns.
- JEL Code
- F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
F51 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy→International Conflicts, Negotiations, Sanctions
F62 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→Macroeconomic Impacts