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Adrian Schmith
International & European Relations
- Division
External Developments
- Current Position
-
Economist
- Fields of interest
-
Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics,International Economics
- Education
- 2018
MSc in Economics, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
- Professional experience
- 2021-2022
Senior Economist - Macro Surveillance and Forecasting, Department of Economics and Monetary Policy, Danmarks Nationalbank
- 2019-2021
Economist - Macro Surveillance and Forecasting, Department of Economics and Monetary Policy, Danmarks Nationalbank
- 13 February 2025
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 1, 2025Details
- Abstract
- While headline inflation has decelerated significantly across advanced economies in the past two years, services inflation has remained high. This box examines the key factors influencing services inflation in the United States and the United Kingdom, highlighting the role of labour market tightness and catch-up dynamics in non-rent services inflation, and the contribution of rent inflation to overall services inflation. Looking ahead, services inflation is expected to moderate amid a lower contribution from catch-up inflation dynamics, a cooling of labour markets and decreasing inflation for new rental agreements.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
C22 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
- 12 April 2023
- THE ECB BLOGDetails
- JEL Code
- F51 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy→International Conflicts, Negotiations, Sanctions
- 27 March 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 2, 2023Details
- Abstract
- This box provides initial evidence of the impact on global oil markets and Russian oil flows of the EU embargo and the G7 price cap on Russian oil imposed in response to Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine. Overall, international oil prices have declined amid resilient supply from Russia and lower global demand, despite the expected rebound of the Chinese economy. After some initial bottlenecks, Russia managed to redirect most of its crude oil exports from Europe to Asia, but only by continuing to offer significant price discounts relative to global prices. However, a stronger impact on global oil markets could still materialise, particularly as, since February, Russia has officially prohibited sales of crude oil to countries that adhere to the price cap mechanism. In addition, the sanctions on refined oil products are only in the early phase of implementation, with initial evidence showing that Russia is partly redirecting those flows towards Africa and unknown destinations while, in the absence of Russian imports, the European diesel market remains tight.
- JEL Code
- E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles