Results of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters for the second quarter of 2022

15 April 2022

• Forecasters cite war in Ukraine as main factor behind macroeconomic forecast revisions
• HICP inflation expectations revised up for 2022 and 2023 but unchanged for 2024 at 1.9%
• Longer term inflation expectations revised up from 2.0% to 2.1%
• Real GDP growth expectations on balance revised down
• Unemployment rate expectations revised down again for all horizons

In the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the second quarter of 2022, respondents revised their inflation expectations for 2022 and 2023 upward, to 6.0% and 2.4% respectively. Expectations for 2024 were unrevised at 1.9%. Regarding the near-term outlook, respondents viewed high inflation as being primarily determined by “cost-push” rather than “demand-pull” factors, and considered that the conflict in Ukraine had re-ignited and amplified price pressures that had started to show signs of peaking. Longer-term inflation expectations for 2026 stood at 2.1%, revised up from 2.0% in the previous survey.

Regarding GDP growth, SPF respondents’ expectations were revised down for 2022 and 2023 and slightly up for 2024, but remained for all years above longer-term growth expectations which edged down marginally to 1.4%. The profile of expected quarter-on-quarter growth in 2022 was revised down in particular for the second quarter (from 1.0% to 0.5%) but while about 25% of respondents who provided a forecast quarterly growth profile saw at least one quarter of negative growth in 2022, only 4% forecasted a technical recession (two consecutive quarters of negative growth).

Notwithstanding the downward revision to expected GDP growth, unemployment rate expectations were revised down further, by between 0.1 and 0.3 percentage points for all horizons. Respondents expect the unemployment rate to decline from 6.9% in 2022 to 6.6% by 2026. Longer-term unemployment expectations are at their lowest level for 15 years.

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Notes

• The SPF survey for the second quarter of 2022 was conducted between 1 and 4 April 2022, with 58 responses received. The SPF is conducted on a quarterly basis and gathers expectations for the rates of inflation, real GDP growth and unemployment in the euro area for several horizons, together with a quantitative assessment of the uncertainty surrounding them. The participants in the survey are experts affiliated with financial or non-financial institutions based within the European Union. The survey results do not represent the views of the ECB’s decision-making bodies or its staff. The next Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections will be published on 9 June 2022.
• Since 2015 the results of the SPF have been published on the ECB’s website. For surveys prior to the first quarter of 2015, see the ECB’s Monthly Bulletin (2002-2014: Q1 – February, Q2 – May, Q3 – August, Q4 – November).
• The SPF report and data are available via the SPF webpage and the ECB’s Statistical Data Warehouse.